System inventory
Each point is the total inventory held at the end of a completed round, using the left axis.
Inventory = matches held across all six plates
Complete the first seven-turn round to plot system inventory.
Chapters 14 & 15 · The Balanced Plant Fallacy
The Matchstick & Dice Game
Simulating Eliyahu Goldratt’s Chapter 14 campfire experiment: watch why statistical fluctuations and dependent events cause a "balanced plant" to collapse into missed deliveries and overflowing inventory.
Autoplay Choose the number of individual rolls and a pace. Each roll processes one stage.
Ready for 360 rolls
Turn0
Last output0
Total throughput0
→ flow of matches →
Infinite supply
∞matches
Throughput
0matches shipped
Ready. Plate 1 is active.
How a turn works
1 · Roll one dieEach turn rolls at the active stage. Faded dice show the previous value rolled at every other stage.
2 · Move one stepOnly that plate is processed. It moves up to the roll, limited by the stock on its left; Plate 1 draws from the infinite box.
3 · Advance rightThe die moves from Plate 1 through Plate 6, then to Throughput before wrapping. Plate 6 holds what it pulls; Throughput rolls separately to ship from Plate 6.
Round-by-round fluctuation
Each row is one round: seven turns, with all six plates and throughput acting once. The tables log every stage transfer; deviation compares each with the 3.5 midpoint.
Accumulated deviation
Each completed round shapes the lines. Hover any line to reveal a value; plate lines use the left axis and the system total uses the right.
System total = sum of all six plate deviations
Complete the first seven-turn round to plot accumulated deviation.
Matches moved
Actual transfer made by each stage during the round.
| Round | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | P6 | Throughput |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll a turn to start the first round. | |||||||
Deviation from 3.5
Matches pulled from the previous stage minus the 3.5 midpoint.
| Round | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | P6 | Throughput |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll a turn to start the first round. | |||||||
📖 The Story Behind the Simulation
Chapter 14 · The Devil's Gulch Campfire
Around the campfire with his son Davey and four scouts, Alex invents a game using a box of matches, bowls, and a die. Each bowl represents a work center; each roll (1–6, average capacity 3.5) represents variable daily output. He expects ~20 finished matches after several rounds.
Chapter 14 · The Accumulating Shortage
The boys experience reality: rolling a 6 is useless if the previous bowl only has 2 matches (starvation). Rolling a 1 leaves matches trapped (inventory accumulation). Positive fluctuations cannot carry over, while negative fluctuations permanently delay the system.
Chapter 15 · The Mathematical Epiphany
Alex stays up contemplating the disaster. He realizes that a factory balanced to match exact market demand is mathematically impossible. In a dependency chain, variance accumulates strictly downward. The only way to survive is to manage bottlenecks rather than balance capacity.
Ready for the Matchsticks & Dice Quiz? Test your understanding of covariance, downstream starvation, and the balanced plant fallacy.
Take Chapter 14–15 Quiz →